Here’s a fact that doesn’t get repeated enough: shutting down UK production doesn’t reduce UK demand.
Hydrocarbons still supply around 75% of the UK’s final energy needs. On current trajectories, the UK could be importing as much as 80% of its oil and gas by 2030.
And imported barrels aren’t carbon neutral. In a 2023 analysis, Wood Mackenzie estimated that oil imports could generate around 500% more lifecycle emissions than oil from the electrified Rosebank and Cambo developments in the UK North Sea.
So, the real choice isn’t “produce or don’t consume.” It’s whether we produce some of the energy we still need here in the UK, with lower carbon intensity, skilled jobs and tax revenues, or import more from overseas with a potentially larger emissions footprint and greater reliance on foreign supply chains.
Managing decline responsibly while reducing demand is a climate strategy. Managing it carelessly risks exporting production, jobs and investment, while doing little to change underlying consumption.